IS THIS RUSSIA’S MOMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

Sir Jeremy Greenstock, formerly British permanent representative to the UN, who has had long experience of dealing with Russia in the context of diplomacy, considers whether the current moment of Russian dominance in Syria and the Middle East, combined with the recent general disengagement of the western powers in the region, could be considered as marking the beginning of a general period of Russian hegemony in the Middle East. The article takes into account the global geopolitical situation, the recent history of Russia and the Middle East, the consequences of western intervention in Iraq, and the motivations of the Russian government particularly in view of its recent engagement in Ukraine.     

What Levels of Racial Diversity Can Be Achieved with Socioeconomic‐Based Affirmative Action? Evidence from a Simulation Model

This paper investigates to what extent socioeconomic status (SES)‐based affirmative action in college admissions can produce racial diversity. Using simulation models, we investigate the racial and socioeconomic distribution of students among colleges under the use of race‐ or SES‐based affirmative action policies, or targeted, race‐based recruitment policies. We find, first, that neither SES‐based affirmative action nor race‐targeted recruiting on their own produce levels of racial diversity achieved by race‐based affirmative action. However, the two policies in combination, although likely expensive, may yield racial diversity comparable to race‐based affirmative action. Second, the use of affirmative action policies by some colleges reduces the diversity of similar‐quality colleges without such policies. Third, the combination of SES‐based affirmative action and race recruiting results in fewer academically‐overmatched Black and Hispanic students than under race‐based affirmative action, but the schools that use both also see a reduction in the academic achievement of enrolled students.     

Long-Term Risks and Possible Benefits Associated with Late Adolescent Romantic Relationship Quality

Adolescent romantic relationships have the potential to affect psychological functioning well into adulthood. This study assessed adolescent romantic relationship qualities as long-term predictors of psychological functioning utilizing a longitudinal multi-method, multi-informant study of 80 participants (59% female; 54% Caucasian, 35% African American, 11% mixed or other race) assessed at age 17 along with their romantic partners and at ages 25–27. Controlling for gender, family income, and baseline mental health, partner-reported hostile conflict at age 17 predicted relative increases in internalizing behaviors from age 17 to 27. In contrast, observed teen support with their partner during a help-seeking task at age 17 predicted relative decreases in externalizing behaviors over time. The results are interpreted as suggesting qualities that may help determine whether adolescent romances have positive vs. negative long-term psychological health implications.     

Industrial Policies and Development Cooperation for a Learning Society

In the countries that have been most successful in development over the past half century, government played a central role (the development state), especially through industrial policies that promoted manufacturing exports. But changes in the global economy mean that African countries won’t be able to rely on the manufacturing export-led growth model. This paper analyzes the reasons for the success of that model, and shows how the same outcomes can be achieved through a multipronged strategy, a comprehensive development plan that pays particular attention to learning and employment.     

Russia's Indirect Grand Strategy

Modern Russia is a revisionist, if not a revanchist, nation-state. It seeks to end the efficacy of the post-World War II institutionalized rules-based international order, which was created and maintained by the U.S.-led Western alliance. Russia pursues this objective to reclaim great power status and dominate the region and its borders. However, it lacks the strength to achieve this goal directly. To be successful, Russia must devise a strategy for bringing about cumulative changes in the relative power of the United States and Russia. And, it must do so while avoiding direct confrontation. A model for such an indirect approach exists.     

The development of the penal bond with conditional defeasance

The development of the penal bond with endorsed conditional defeasance presents a problem because the earliest monetary penalties in English contracts took the form of straight-forward penalty clauses. It is hard to see how the convoluted penal bond developed from such penalty clauses. This article traces the development of the penal bond from debt recognizances defeasible by the performance of conditions stated in a separate document. The logic of the defeasible recognizance was carried over to other arrangements including the penal bond with endorsed conditional defeasance.